Lab

U.S. Midterm Elections · 3 November 2026

The 2026 Midterms
Scenario Forecast

Explore every House, Senate and governor race, then test how a shared national polling surprise could change the balance of power.

1,000 correlated simulationsUpdated 24 Oct 2026
Race
Polling error
Polls as they stand
D +10R +10
Democrats226
Toss-up9
Republicans200

Lean, Likely and Solid seats at the current shift.

Chance of control · 1,000 simulations

Democrats reach 218 seats in 84% of simulations · median 238 D – 197 R

01 · Geography

435 House districts

View
Highlight
02 · Race watch

Closest races

The bar is the 80% outcome range; the line is the median. The axis runs from D+20 to R+20.

How this works

Senate and governor medians use the supplied polling averages where available; races without polling use a median implied by their Cook Political Report rating. House medians are back-calculated from district win probabilities. Ratings are re-derived from win probability at every setting. Seat totals come from 1,000 seeded simulations sharing a national polling error, so races move together.

About the views

The House hex cartogram gives each state one hexagon per voting seat. Senate and governor tile grids use one cell per office at stake. Equal-area views do not trace district boundaries. The geographic map preserves state shape and uses delegation-level aggregation for the House. Data supplied as at 24 October 2026.