Datashow

Greens4

Labor21

Toss-up25

Coalition38

Seats by projected winner: Solid, Likely and Lean at the current settings. Parties run left to right.

Chance of a majority · 1,000 simulations

The Coalition holds 45 seats in 74% of simulations on a 2PP basis · 2PP median 54 LNP – 34 ALP

Labor 2PP majorityHungCoalition 2PP majority

01 · Geography

88 Assembly districts

Colour

SafeDecisive projected to change handsColour is the projected winner. Strength is the chance the seat changes hands. Labels mark seats with at least a 25% chance.

Select a hexagon to see that seat’s detail. Select it again, or any empty part of the cartogram, to close it.

NORTHERN VICTORIA11 seats

LNP +2ALP −2

WESTERN VICTORIA11 seats

LNP +4ON +1ALP −5

EASTERN VICTORIA11 seats

LNP +4ALP −4

WESTERN METRO11 seats

LNP +2ON +1ALP −3

NORTHERN METRO11 seats

no change

NORTH-EASTERN METRO11 seats

LNP +5ALP −5

SOUTHERN METRO11 seats

GRN +1ALP −1

SOUTH-EASTERN METRO11 seats

ON +2LNP +1ALP −3

02 · Seat watch

Most consequential seats

The seats most likely to change hands. A boxed code marks a projected flip; the bar shows each candidate’s chance and the figure is the chance the holder loses.

How this works

The starting point is the average of the five latest statewide polls (Sept 1 to Oct 10): Labor 24.4, Coalition 29.2, Greens 14.8, One Nation 22.8, others 8.8, and a Coalition two-party lead of about 54–46. Each district's 2022 primary vote is scaled to that average. Independent votes are carried forward only where an independent is standing again in 2026 (from the declared candidate list; nominations close 13 November), discounted where the 2022 candidate has been replaced. One Nation contested only five seats in 2022, so its vote has to be placed somewhere: it goes where the 2022 right-wing minor parties polled best, blended with the regional average. After that it is treated like every other party.

Parties are ordered left to right (Greens, Labor, independents, Coalition, One Nation). Seats are counted on each side of the two-party preferred vote: Coalition 2PP seats are those won by the Coalition or One Nation, and Labor 2PP seats those won by Labor or the Greens. In the Council, Animal Justice, Victorian Socialists and Legalise Cannabis are grouped with Labor and the Greens, and the Libertarians, Shooters, Labour DLP, Family First and Freedom with the Coalition and One Nation. The slider is labelled by its effect on the Labor v Coalition two-party preferred vote, shown in the readout. The slider moves the same number of points between the two groups in every seat, taken from and given to each party in proportion to its vote. Every simulation shares one statewide error between the two groups and two split errors (how each group's vote divides between its two parties), plus local noise in each seat. Votes are counted to two candidates with full preferences under one rule for every party: each party's preferences favour its nearest neighbours on a left-right scale, fading with distance. The scale follows the conventional placement: Greens left, Labor centre-left, teal and community independents centre, Liberals centre-right, Nationals right, One Nation far right. Each independent is placed by their own record, using a former party where they have one (for example, Mildura's Ali Cupper, a former Labor candidate, sits just left of centre). As polled is the setting that reproduces the published two-party polls. Ratings: Toss-up under 60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid above. Significance is the chance the current holder loses the seat. Grouping parties is seat arithmetic only; it does not imply any party would form government with another.

The Council uses each region's 2022 vote moved by the same statewide changes (with One Nation at 21% rather than 22.8%, since more minor parties stand for the Council) and a party-level count to five seats (quota 16.7%). Group voting tickets are gone for 2026, so preferences follow voters: 78% of a party's votes stay live and flow by the same left-right rule. Council significance compares each projected seat with the 2022 result in that region.

About the cartogram

Each district gets one equal hexagon. Positions come from an equal-area rubber-sheet cartogram of the 2021 boundaries (Geoscape/VEC), then snapped into a hex grid cut to Victoria's outline, so Melbourne expands to its share of seats while Mildura stays in the north-west and Gippsland runs east. The Council view gives each region five hexagons. Seats held: Labor 54 plus 2 Independent Labor (counted with Labor's 2022 result), Coalition 29 after the 2025 Prahran by-election, Greens 3. Prahran's baseline is moved halfway toward its 2025 by-election result. Data as at 24 October 2026.

Polls in the average

Dates	Pollster	ALP	L/NP	GRN	ONP	Oth	2PP L/NP
6–10 Oct	Resolve	25	28	15	23	9	–
2–8 Oct	RedBridge/Accent	24	30	16	24	6	56
24–28 Sep	Freshwater	24	29	14	22	11	53
10–20 Sep	DemosAU	25	30	14	20	11	52
1–14 Sep	RedBridge/Accent	24	29	15	25	7	56
Average		24.4	29.2	14.8	22.8	8.8	54.3

Sources: poll compilation, VEC 2022 results, Geoscape state electoral boundaries. For comparison, YouGov's August MRP projected Coalition 39, Labor 29, One Nation 17, Greens 3.